Monetary policy contagion has been an important open-macroeconomic phenomenon
which has affected the policy-making of central bankers worldwide, irrespective of their open macroeconomic choices with respect to Mundellian trilemma (Mundell, 1963). In accordance with Mundellian trilemma, an economy can exercise only two out of the three open-macroeconomic choices, i.e., monetary independence, exchange rate stability and capital openness. In general, it suggests that an economy with free capital movements, as is the case for many developed economies and also an increasing number of emerging market economies (EMEs) today, cannot choose to have a fixed exchange rate regime along with an independent monetary policy. Since, open capital accounts have become a norm in the recent times, economies have shifted to varying degree of exchange rate flexibility to enable
monetary autonomy in their respective economies, in the last decade. However, the recent
empirical literature has argued that the domestic policy rates in small open economies are
quite sensitive to monetary shocks originating in the center economy (loss of monetary
autonomy) irrespective of the exchange rate regime being followed by them. This imposes
limits on the extent of monetary policy autonomy that the central bank of a periphery
economy can exercise. Various explanations have been forwarded to explain this inability of
flexible exchange rates to insulate monetary autonomy. In brief, fear of floating (Calvo and
Reinhart, 2002; Hausmann et al., 2001) , and global financial cycle (Rey and Agrippino,
2015) have been cited to be as the important reasons why the insulating property of xchange rates against external influences may get weak. Very recently, renowned economists have also raised such issues. Caruana (2013) in his speech delivered at Central bank of Chile, highlighted that the spillovers of monetary policy in the recent times may get transmitted either by its impact on the Quantities (Dollar credit growth, capital flows) or through prices (exchange rate, bond yield in local markets). After the adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures by US, Rajan (2015) remarked, that sustained unconventional policies adopted by U.S. to revive its economy may prompt a reaction by foreign central banks in advanced economies as well as emerging market economies (EMEs) to avoid exchange rate changes via capital inflows. In this fashion, each central bank does what suits its economy the best but in aggregate this might hurt world demand further and make financial risks higher.
The studies in this area are primarily concerned with monetary autonomy as it is of utmost
importance in maneuvering the domestic macroeconomic conditions of an economy
(specifically in ensuring price stability and stimulating aggregate demand in the short run).
All the three studies in this dissertation investigate monetary autonomy or the lack of it in one way or the other. An analysis of the recent body of empirical literature in this field highlights the various reasons for the existence of such interconnectedness of monetary actions around the globe. In brief, the cross-border effects of monetary policy in the base economy may be because of a combination of the undermentioned factors: i. Interconnected/synchronized business cycles: Evolution of US business cycle for
example can affect global macroeconomic conditions as US business cycle may
dictate synchronized business cycles throughout the globe thereby causing similar
phases of economic boom and recovery worldwide. This mandates similar monetary
policy movements across the globe as indicated by US Fed Funds rate.ii. Common factors which influence all the economies in a similar fashion like
commodity prices, oil price shocks etc.